The release of the Vision Pro has kickstarted the next wave of consumer computing. VR and AR (virtual and augmented reality respectively) aren’t new. But Apple’s entry to the market has brought them into the mainstream.
Until now, I’ve not really paid all that much attention to AR/VR. While they’ve been around for a while, the hardware to successfully bring them to market has not kept place with the ambition of the companies developing the tech. And, I’m not yet convinced that we’re there. But we’re getting close.
Entering the world of VR/AR
The Apple Vision Pro has brought VR/AR into mainstream consciousness. Even though Meta is the dominant player today, the company is still more widely known for its social media properties rather than its VR/AR hardware business. But the Vision Pro’s USD$3499 price tag and limited availability puts it out of most people’s reach. And that’s why I think Apple has handed Meta a huge market advantage.
Mark Zuckerberg, in a recent video posted to Instagram, said as much.
Apple’s high cost and Meta’s decade of fostering the AR/VR developer community gives it a huge market advantage. At one-seventh the cost and with a far broader range of apps, the Meta Quest is streets ahead of the Vision Pro – for now.
Can Meta stay ahead?
This is the big question. According to recent report, Meta sold almost a quarter of a million Quest headsets (about a third are Quest 3 headsets with the rest the previous model) in November 2023. Some reports suggest the company has sold as many as 20 million headsets over the years. And that gives Meta a strong lead.
But Apple has come into established markets and either reformed or taken them over before. They did it when the first MacBook Air made the Netbook redundant. The iPhone completely upended the cosy relationship between carriers and cellphone makers. And the Apple Watch quickly overtook the entire Swiss watch industry.
Writing off Apple this early in the game would be reckless.
It’s not about numbers
Apple is more interested in profits than raw sales numbers. It doesn’t sell the most smartphones or computers. Its target is the mid to high end markets. Apple rarely plays in the lower tiers. Even its ‘budget’ products, like the MacBook Air and iPhone SE are more expensive than competitors’ entry level products.
Apple seems, for now, to be placing itself as the Rolls Royce of VR/AR with a Mercedes/BMW version coming later. And then, perhaps a Hyundai level to follow. That will likely take another three to five years to achieve. And it will only happen if there’s a critical mass of developers on board.
By then, Meta will have a reasonably large base of installed users, perhaps as many as 100 million people. But that’s the market the iPhone entered. When was the last time you saw someone with a Sony Ericsson flip phone or Nokia candybar?
For now, I suspect sales of the Meta Quest 3 will be rising as people who can’t afford or procure a Vision Pro get on the VR/AR bandwagon to see what all the fuss is about. And that’s good news for Meta.
Anthony is the founder of Australian Apple News. He is a long-time Apple user and former editor of Australian Macworld. He has contributed to many technology magazines and newspapers as well as appearing regularly on radio and occasionally on TV.