Now that the dust has settled and those who were desperate to get their hands on a new iPhone 15 or iPhone 15 Pro either have one or are patiently waiting for delivery. But for those who are still wondering if the upgrade is worthwhile, chances are you’re probably quite happy with the iPhone you currently have. So, who is the iPhone 15 for?
How long do people keep their phones?
My suspicion is that there are three groups of smartphone owners.
Group One hang onto their phones for as long as possible. If you see one of this group on the street, they might still be rocking and iPhone 6 or 7. For them, the iPhone is a convenience and not a status symbol. They mainly make calls, send texts and shoot the odd photo.
Group Two like a reasonably modern phone but probably get their’s on a contract with a carrier. That means they plan their upgrades for every two or three years depending on budget and the deal offered by their carrier. Chances are, if you see someone from this cohort, they’ll be talking into an iPhone 12 or 13.
Group Three are the annual upgraders. Whenever a new model is announced, they have their fingers ready to tap the order button as soon as pre-orders open. In days gone by, they may even have queued up at their local Apple Store. One of their favourite new services offered by Apple is the trade-in so they can cut the cost of their annual upgrade.
When you look across those three groups, the data that comes from market analysts makes some sense. Mobile Muster, an organisation that helps to collect and recycle old phones, says:
Our research indicates that the average mobile phone replacement cycle has reached 30 months in Australia. Older Australians are more likely to hold onto their mobile phones for longer whereas younger Australians are more likely to upgrade sooner.
Where do you fit?
If you look at this logically, it makes sense that Group Three, the annual upgraders, are going to be first in line for the latest iPhone. Group Two is probably behind them, waiting for the demand to drop back so they walk into a store and play with a handset before upgrading. I’d expect many in Group Two to actually skip the iPhone 15 and perhaps save a few bucks and grab last year’s model because having the latest and greatest is not all that important to them.
And if you’re in Group One – you probably don’t care one iota that the new iPhone has an amazing camera, is made of titanium and can communicate using satellites when there’s an emergency. When your upgrade time comes – likely because your iPhone’s battery can’t make it past lunch – you’ll just buy the cheapest possible replacement which is likely a two year old model that Apple has kept in its range just for you.
This year’s iPhone is not for most of us
Apple knows that the days of the annual iPhone upgrade are well behind us. When former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer lampooned Apple for releasing a $600 iPhone back in 2007, annual upgrades, while expensive, were affordable for a lot of people. But with prices now doubled, and even tripled depending on the model and spec you choose, not many people upgrade annually.
That means most of us sit in groups one and two. And with only a portion of each group looking for a new iPhone this year, it’s likely the new iPhone is not for everyone.
There are about 1.5 billion active iPhone users on the planet. Apple expects to sell something like 220 million new units over the next year. The iPhone 15 is not for most of us. It’s for the relatively small group that are either coming off plan, have a handset that is so old it’s become useless or simply must have the newest iPhone no matter what.
Anthony is the founder of Australian Apple News. He is a long-time Apple user and former editor of Australian Macworld. He has contributed to many technology magazines and newspapers as well as appearing regularly on radio and occasionally on TV.