In a sign that the global smartphone market is close to saturation, IDC forecasts sales growth of just 1.4% globally next year. With global population growth sitting about 1%, it suggests that this growth will be fuelled mainly through population growth with the remainder coming from people upgrading.
The big story for Apple is that IDC says iOS growth has come in at 3.9% for the year and this will fuel much of the growth for 2026. Previous IDC data tipped a more modest 0.6% overall market increase but the increase in iOS shipments this year has pushed up the anticipated growth for 2026.
IDC says there are several reasons for this. The increased focus on Generative AI technologies, such as Apple Intelligence, as well as new handsets with design features such as thinner profiles, like thethe anticipated iPhone 17 Air, and lower cost units like the iPhone 16e have helped to push the market for Apple along.
“GenAI continues to be a significant focus for vendors in differentiating themselves as they integrate AI features into their devices to drive shipments,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “IDC forecasts over 370 million GenAI smartphones to be shipped globally in 2025, contributing to 30% share. As the number of use cases expands and consumer education increases, we expect on-device GenAI capabilities to be incorporated into more mid-range devices, making them a standard must-have feature sooner rather than later—boosting GenAI share to over 70% by 2029.”
The big unknown in all this is when Apple will release its first foldable iPhone. That’s expected to come in late 2026. If that happens, Apple can expect a revenue bump as the expected price will be significantly more expensive than an iPhone 16 Max. So, even if the folding iPhone cannibalises sales from Apple’s premium smartphones, it will result in increased revenue and, one assumes, increased margins without costing the company lost unit sales.
In an increasingly saturated market, maintaining growth is extremely challenging. Apple’s is continuing to find ways to continue boosting iPhone shipments despite challenges such as the reduction in subsidies offered in China by that country’s government as well the continued uncertainty around tariffs in the USA.
Anthony is the founder of Australian Apple News. He is a long-time Apple user and former editor of Australian Macworld. He has contributed to many technology magazines and newspapers as well as appearing regularly on radio and occasionally on TV.