IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker says global foldable smartphone shipments are forecast to grow. It expects 30% year-on-year growth in 2026.
The boost will be driven by the long-rumoured foldable iPhone as well as Galaxy Z Trifold. Samsung seems to think two folds are better than one (apparently). New folding Samsung phones are expected to arrive in Q1 2025 and are expected to ignite consumer demand. The arrival of folding phones is seen as an incentive for people to push forward their upgrade plans.
Reports say that Apple has ordered about 11 million inward folding OLED displays as well as 11 million external displays. This is substantially higher than was expected and have, no doubt, factored into IDC’s analysis.
IDC’s most recent shipping data found that Apple shipped a total of 58.6 million iPhones in the third quarter of this year.
Figures that reflect iPhone 17 and iPhone Air sales are not in yet. Industry consensus says the iPhone 17 is a big hit, but the iPhone Air is a flop. When the folding iPhone is finally released, it will be interesting to see what sales impact it actually has.
Samsung’s shift to folding models has, no doubt, resulted in lost sales for Apple. But Apple has maintained sales growth over that time so the impact may not be huge.
And a folding iPhone may not necessarily result in Apple selling more iPhones. A folding iPhone will probably cannibalise iPhone Pro sales. But it could attract people who switched to a folding Android phone back to the Apple fold (pun intended).
Anthony is the founder of Australian Apple News. He is a long-time Apple user and former editor of Australian Macworld. He has contributed to many technology magazines and newspapers as well as appearing regularly on radio and occasionally on TV.